Europe’s Moral Collapse Begins in Kosovo

As Moscow tests NATO’s skies, Belgrade wages its own war by proxy. Kosovo stands firm, but Britain’s silence risks surrendering Europe’s moral and strategic core.

It is a crisp autumn evening in London. On 22 October, the city will host the Berlin Process summit, gathering Western Balkan leaders and European partners to reaffirm commitments to European integration, rule of law, reconciliation, economic development. Beneath the optics of diplomacy lies a far more dangerous game. Russia is testing the limits of NATO’s resolve from the north, and via its Balkan proxy in Belgrade it is grinding away at the Western Balkans’ fragile democratic order. Kosovo is on the frontline and Britain, once a security guarantor in the region, must decide whether it remains a spectator or reasserts its relevance.

From Baltic skies to Balkan shadows: the new pattern of provocations

In recent weeks, the Kremlin has markedly increased its aerial aggressions toward NATO airspace, pushing past mere signals to sustained pressure. On 19 September 2025, three Russian MiG-31s flew into Estonian airspace¹, operating without transponders, ignoring NATO warnings for 12 minutes before being escorted out. Estonia immediately invoked NATO’s Article 4, and a North Atlantic Council emergency meeting followed on 23 September².

Earlier, on 9–10 September, Russia launched a drone wave into Poland. Some of the drones were shot down³; Polish authorities described the incursion as “unprecedented⁴.” That event triggered the formal activation of Operation Eastern Sentry on 12 September, integrating NATO air defence assets across the eastern flank to guard against further incursions⁵.

In the same period, allies such as Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Romania reported airspace violations or suspicious incursions⁶. NATO’s response has begun to shift, instead of purely passive interception, Allies are recalibrating rules of engagement to allow more autonomous responses to breaches⁷. Brussels is no longer content to treat these as tactical nuisances, the pattern is strategic.

These incursions are not random, they are calibrating salvos. They test how far the alliance will escalate, how national capitals will respond, how cohesion holds. If aircraft and drones can cross thresholds unpunished, deterrence erodes, and Russia gains manoeuvring space.

Yet this is only part of the story. The other front lies in the Western Balkans, a zone of vulnerability, where Serbia has become the Kremlin’s blunt instrument.