The Fragile Peace of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia’s fragile peace, deeply scarred by ethnic divisions, faces rising nationalism, secession threats, and distrust in international bodies, hindering progress towards lasting reconciliation.
Nearly three decades after the guns fell silent, Bosnia and Herzegovina remains a country at war with itself, its peace fragile, its future uncertain. The Dayton Agreement, which brought an end to the Bosnian War in 1995, has preserved Bosnia as a single nation, but it is a nation divided, split into two entities that reflect the ethnic and religious divisions that fuelled the conflict. This division, enshrined in the very structure of the country’s government, has made it difficult for Bosnia to move forward, to heal the wounds of the past, and to build a future of peace and unity. As I continued my journey through Bosnia this April, the complexities of this fragile peace became increasingly apparent. The political landscape is marked by deep divisions, with nationalist leaders on all sides pushing for greater autonomy, if not outright secession. The Republika Srpska, under the leadership of Milorad Dodik, has been at the forefront of these efforts, with Dodik repeatedly threatening to withdraw from Bosnia’s national institutions and establish an independent Serb state

The rise of nationalism in Bosnia is not a new phenomenon, but it has gained new momentum in recent years. The legal amendments in 2021 that criminalised genocide denial were intended to confront historical revisionism and promote reconciliation, but they have instead deepened national divisions. In the Republika Srpska, these amendments were met with outrage, with leaders accusing the central government of trying to impose a false narrative on the Serb people. Dodik, in particular, has used this issue to rally support for his secessionist agenda, framing the amendments as an attack on Serb identity and sovereignty. His rhetoric has become increasingly inflammatory, with frequent references to the possibility of war if Republika Srpska’s demands are not met. This has created a climate of fear and uncertainty in Bosnia, with many people worried that the country is on the brink of a new conflict.
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